Price fluctuations of solar cells intensify, while overall wafer transactions remain relatively weak [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

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SMM reported on July 4:

Electrode

Price

The electrode market was in the doldrums this week. However, on the cost side, the price of low-sulphur petroleum coke, a raw material, increased slightly in multiple regions during the week. Currently, the effect of the raw material price increase has not yet been transmitted to the electrode end. Based on a comprehensive analysis of supply and demand, there is significant resistance to electrode price increases. In the short term, the electrode market is expected to remain in the doldrums. Currently, the quotes for ordinary power carbon electrodes with a diameter of 960-1100mm are 6,100-6,300 yuan/mt, and for those with a diameter of 1272mm are 6,800-7,000 yuan/mt. The quotes for ordinary power graphite electrodes with a diameter of 960-1100mm are 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, and for those with a diameter of 1272mm are 10,900-11,100 yuan/mt.

Supply

Currently, the operating rates of various producers remain low, mainly focusing on destocking. Additionally, due to weak demand from downstream silicon plants, the overall shipping speed is slow.

Demand

Affected by the low resumption rate of downstream silicon plants in the rainy season in south-west China and the low operating rates of silicon plants in other regions, the procurement of raw material electrodes is cautious, mainly for just-in-time restocking.

Silicon Metal

Price

Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was priced at 8,600-8,800 yuan/mt, with a weekly increase of 350 yuan/mt. The spot price of silicon metal performed strongly this week, with spot prices maintaining a premium over futures, and the center of spot cargo transactions in the market rising.

Production:

Recently, there has been a decrease in supply in the north and an increase in the south. Yunnan entered the rainy season in July, with a small amount of capacity resuming production. Overall, the decrease was more significant, and the weekly production of silicon metal decreased MoM.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions on July 3 was 552,000 mt, an increase of 10,000 mt WoW. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 126,000 mt, a decrease of 2,000 mt WoW, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 426,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), an increase of 12,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Wafer

Price

The market price of N-type 18X wafers is 0.85-0.9 yuan/piece, and the price of N-type 210RN wafers is 1.18-1.2 yuan/piece. Prices continued to fall this week, with multiple enterprises lowering wafer prices earlier. Frequent related meetings have attracted market attention, and changes in the polysilicon end may support subsequent prices.

Production

Global wafer production in June is estimated to be around 60GW. Currently, wafer enterprises are generally experiencing cash cost losses, with top-tier enterprises maintaining around the cash cost line. Production cuts are expected to be more significant in July.

Inventory

Overall market transactions were relatively weak this week. Some orders were signed in the early stage, and there was a slight inventory buildup of wafers this week.

Solar cell

Price

The price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (with efficiency of 23.2% and above) was 0.265-0.27 yuan/W. Domestic demand was extremely low, and all were export orders. The market operating rate was extremely low, and producers started or stopped production lines based on orders.

The transaction price of Topcon183N solar cells (with efficiency of 25% and above) was 0.225-0.23 yuan/W; that of Topcon210RN was 0.245-0.25 yuan/W; and that of Topcon210N solar cells was around 0.24-0.25 yuan/W. Under the pressure of destocking at month-end, price competition became increasingly fierce, and price fluctuations intensified. Compared with last week, the lowest prices of 183N, 210N, and 210RN decreased by 0.005, 0.01, and 0.01 yuan/W respectively.

HJT30% silver-clad copper (with efficiency of 25% and above) recently stabilized at 0.35-0.36 yuan/W. Prices increased due to market demand fluctuations and cost control. Overall, direct sales of HJT were limited, and integrated producers were self-sufficient.

Production

The global production schedule of Chinese enterprises in July was 53-54 GW, down 3% MoM. Supported by the remaining installation rush orders, the overall production cuts were relatively small, and the proportion of 210RN production schedule increased to over 40% of the total.

Inventory

At month-end, export-oriented factories intensified their destocking efforts, with 183 accounting for the highest proportion of the remaining inventory.

PV film

Price

PV-grade EVA

The current price of PV-grade EVA was 9,500-9,750 yuan/mt. The transaction price of PV-grade POE reached 11,000-14,000 yuan/mt.

PV film

Currently, the mainstream price of 420g transparent EVA film was 5.17-5.25 yuan/m², that of 420g white EVA film was 5.67-5.75 yuan/m², that of 380g EPE film was 5.28-5.32 yuan/m², and that of 380g POE film was 6.69-6.84 yuan/m².

Production

In July, the production schedule of PV-grade EVA increased by 0.24% MoM, while that of PV film decreased by 1.87% MoM.

Inventory

In July, demand declined, and the transaction atmosphere of PV-grade EVA was sluggish. Some petrochemical enterprises gradually accumulated inventory, but with the conversion and maintenance of petrochemical plants, the pace of inventory buildup would gradually slow down.